Deal Preflight complete report
TrailNest Gear (illustrative example)
Attractive cash generation, but supplier and paid-channel concentration need proof and price protection
The working price is 1.99x annualized seller-stated profit with a 24.3% margin. Revenue and profit are not yet reconciled to source records, one supplier represents 72% of unit volume, and the largest acquisition channel represents 58%. The deal may merit a seller call, but the current evidence does not justify relying on the headline profit or assuming a clean handover.
Deal score
68/100
Deterministic quality score
Claim verification
33/100
Important claims backed by evidence you inspected
Suggested next action
Request a 12-month Shopify order export, payment-processor payout export, monthly P&L, ad-platform spend exports, supplier invoices, and the draft asset-transfer schedule. Reconcile all six to the same dates before discussing price.
Top positives
Short headline payback
At the seller-stated USD 6,900 monthly profit, the USD 165,000 working price implies a 23.9-month payback before tax, transaction costs, replacement labour, reinvestment, or decline.
Positive comparable-period direction
Supplied monthly revenue is 12.7% above the prior comparison and supplied monthly profit is 11.3% higher. The monthly series still needs to show whether this is durable or seasonal.
Most implied costs are itemized
The listed expense lines explain USD 18,580 of USD 21,500 in costs implied by revenue less profit. That is useful for reconciliation, although USD 2,920 per month remains unexplained.
Priority risks
Single-supplier exposure is material
The lead supplier reportedly provides 72% of unit volume. A pricing change, quality issue, stockout, or refusal to continue could impair sales quickly.
Largest acquisition channel is 58%
More than half of acquisition is tied to one seller-stated channel. Verify its identity, economics, account ownership, and performance trend before assuming revenue persists.
Revenue and profit are not source-reconciled
The financial summary remains seller-claimed. Gross sales, payouts, refunds, taxes, ad spend, inventory cost, and bank deposits have not yet been matched month by month.
USD 2,920 monthly cost gap
Revenue less profit implies USD 21,500 of monthly cost, but listed expenses total USD 18,580. Identify the missing USD 2,920 before relying on normalized profit.
Account and asset handover is incomplete
The listing promises several assets, but marketplace account transfer and supplier agreements are not evidenced. Each asset needs its own owner, consent, transfer step, and failure remedy.
Financial snapshot
24.3%
Monthly margin
$340,800
Annual revenue
$82,800
Annual profit
1.99×
Profit multiple
0.48×
Revenue multiple
23.9 mo
Payback
Score breakdown
Why each category received its score and the evidence that should be checked next.
Input: 24.3%. Compared with Deal Preflight's ecommerce margin bands.
Input: 11.3%. Scores from 0 at -20% growth to 100 at +40% growth, capped at both ends.
Input: 6900. Positive supplied profit receives 100/100.
Why this score: The model combines profit positivity, the supplied 24.3% monthly margin, and any comparable profit growth.
What to check next: Request a 12-24 month monthly P&L and reconcile revenue and expenses to payment-processor and bank statements.
Input: 6200. Lower supplied ad-spend share scores better; missing scores 50.
Input: 4.8%. Zero refunds scores 100 and 20% or more scores 0; missing scores 50.
Why this score: The model used monthly ad spend 6200; refund rate 4.8%. Missing inputs receive a neutral score, not a positive score.
What to check next: Request channel-level sales, ad spend, CAC/ROAS, refund data, and read-only Shopify/analytics access for the same period.
Input: 38 months. 36 months or more scores 100; missing scores 50.
Input: 22%. A 40% or higher repeat-customer rate scores 100.
Why this score: The category averages operating history (38 months) and repeat-customer rate; neither alone proves defensibility.
What to check next: Confirm the launch date, repeat-customer or retention history, brand/IP ownership, and whether competitors can reproduce the offer.
Input: 14 hours/week. Zero hours scores 100, 40 or more scores 0, and missing scores 50. Treat seller claims as unverified until a task log is checked.
Why this score: 14 owner hours per week were supplied; lower documented workload scores better.
What to check next: Ask for a task-by-task weekly operating schedule, contractor costs, SOPs, and a transition plan.
Input: 72%. Zero concentration scores 100, 60% or more scores 0, and missing scores 50.
Input: medium. Low scores 100, medium 55, high 15, and missing 50.
Why this score: Largest supplied concentration is 72%; platform dependency is medium.
What to check next: Request revenue/traffic by channel, customer, supplier, product, and geography, then confirm account transferability.
Input: medium. Low scores 100, medium 55, high 15, and missing 50.
Input: true. Included scores 80, excluded 45, and unknown 50 because quantity and condition still need proof.
Why this score: The score reflects founder dependence (not supplied) and relevant account, inventory, IP, or platform-transfer inputs.
What to check next: Ask for an asset schedule covering domain, code/content, trademarks, inventory, supplier agreements, platform accounts, credentials, and seller support.
Input: 12.7%. Scores from 0 at -20% growth to 100 at +50% growth, capped at both ends.
Why this score: Comparable monthly revenue implies 12.7% growth; SaaS/app scores also consider supplied churn.
What to check next: Request monthly revenue and profit by month, not cumulative headline totals, and investigate any step changes or seasonality.
Input: 1.99x. Up to 2x scores 100; 3x scores 85; 4x scores 65; 5x scores 40; 7x scores 20; above 7x scores 5. Missing scores 50.
Why this score: The asking price equals 1.99× annualized supplied profit; lower multiples score better before transaction costs and downside.
What to check next: Confirm the current asking price, what assets/inventory are included, and recalculate the multiple using verified normalized profit.
Deal math audit
This reverses the listing math. Instead of accepting the asking price, it shows the monthly profit required to recover that price in 24, 36, or 48 months. These are arithmetic reference points, not valuation advice or market comparables.
| Payback target | Profit needed / month | Price supported by claimed profit | Reality check |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 months | $6,875 | $165,600 | Claimed profit has 0.4% headroom against this target. |
| 36 months | $4,583 | $248,400 | Claimed profit has 33.6% headroom against this target. |
| 48 months | $3,438 | $331,200 | Claimed profit has 50.2% headroom against this target. |
Claimed annual profit divided by asking price equals a 50.2% pre-tax cash yield before transaction costs, financing, replacement labour, reinvestment, and any decline.
Profit-to-expense bridge
Revenue minus profit implies total monthly costs. Deal Preflight compares that implied amount with the expense lines actually listed so the buyer can see whether the cost story is complete.
Implied total costs
$21,500
Monthly revenue minus monthly profit
Expenses itemized
$18,580
86.4% of implied costs explained
Cost gap not itemized
$2,920
Ask which recurring costs make up this gap
How to verify the three core claims
Run these checks for the exact reporting period used in the listing before relying on the score or discussing price.
Verify the revenue claim
Listing claim onlyAsk for: Ask for read-only store and payment-processor access, plus a monthly sales export covering every month used in the listing.
How to test it: Match monthly gross sales to processor payouts and bank deposits, then reconcile refunds, taxes, discounts, and timing differences.
Warning sign: Treat screenshots, a single strong month, or totals that do not reconcile to cash received as unresolved.
Rebuild the profit claim
Listing claim onlyAsk for: Ask for a monthly profit and loss statement plus invoices or exports for every material cost shown in the listing.
How to test it: Recalculate profit after product cost, shipping, refunds, ad spend, apps, contractors, staff, payment fees, and a fair cost for the owner's work.
Warning sign: Profit is unresolved if expenses are omitted, unusually low, mixed with personal costs, or based on a different period from revenue.
Connect traffic to sales
You marked this verifiedAsk for: Ask for GA4 and store analytics for the same period, broken down by channel, country, device, and conversion rate.
How to test it: Compare month-by-month traffic with orders or paying users. Inspect concentration, sudden spikes, paid versus organic mix, and whether the claimed conversion trend is repeatable.
Warning sign: Traffic is unresolved if access is not live/read-only, date ranges differ, or visits cannot be connected to customers and revenue.
What if monthly profit falls?
This is a stress test, not a prediction and not a negative-profit label. “Profit falls 10%” means supplied monthly profit is multiplied by 90%, while the working purchase price stays the same. Deal Preflight then recalculates annual profit and payback time.
| Scenario | Monthly profit | Annual profit | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| Profit falls 10% | $6,210 | $74,520 | 26.6 months |
| Profit falls 25% | $5,175 | $62,100 | 31.9 months |
| Profit falls 50% | $3,450 | $41,400 | 47.8 months |
Business and compliance checks
Select any check below to reveal exactly what to ask for, how to verify it, and which warning signs to escalate to a lawyer, accountant, or technical reviewer. This is not legal or compliance advice.
Seller identity, ownership, and authorityClick to view request and verification stepsLawyer
Ask for
Ask for the seller's legal name, entity registration, beneficial owners, and written authority to sell each asset.
How to verify
Match the contracting party to company records, domain and account ownership, invoices, bank records, and the proposed sale agreement.
Warning sign
A different person or entity receives payment, owns key assets, or cannot show authority to transfer them.
Asset and intellectual-property ownershipClick to view request and verification stepsLawyer
Ask for
Request a complete asset schedule covering domains, trademarks, content, designs, code, data, customer lists, social accounts, and third-party licences.
How to verify
Confirm ownership records, employee and contractor IP assignments, licence transfer rights, and exclusions from the sale.
Warning sign
Key material was created by a contractor without an assignment, uses a non-transferable licence, or is omitted from the agreement.
Contracts, accounts, and change-of-control termsClick to view request and verification stepsLawyer
Ask for
Request customer, supplier, platform, payment, advertising, software, and contractor agreements plus any account-transfer guidance.
How to verify
Identify assignment restrictions, consent requirements, termination rights, personal guarantees, minimum commitments, and change-of-control clauses.
Warning sign
Revenue or operations depend on an account or contract that cannot move to the buyer on acceptable terms.
Tax, accounting, and undisclosed liabilitiesClick to view request and verification stepsAccountant
Ask for
Ask for monthly financial statements, tax filings, GST, VAT or sales-tax records, bank statements, processor statements, debt, refunds, and unpaid obligations.
How to verify
Reconcile revenue and expenses to cash, confirm the correct selling entity, and determine which historic or ongoing liabilities can follow the assets or transaction.
Warning sign
Filings do not match the listing, liabilities are not quantified, or the seller resists a period-by-period reconciliation.
Privacy, data protection, and securityClick to view request and verification stepsLawyer
Ask for
Request privacy notices, consent records, data-processing agreements, breach and complaint history, retention rules, subprocessors, and cross-border data flows.
How to verify
Confirm the buyer can lawfully receive and continue using customer or user data and that required notices, consents, contracts, and security controls exist.
Warning sign
Customer data was collected without a clear basis, a material breach is unresolved, or transfer to the buyer is restricted.
Claims, disputes, and regulatory historyClick to view request and verification stepsLawyer
Ask for
Ask for threatened or current disputes, refunds, chargebacks, takedowns, platform warnings, regulator contact, insurance claims, and settlement obligations.
How to verify
Search the relevant official records and ensure all known issues and continuing obligations are disclosed in writing.
Warning sign
The seller's written disclosure conflicts with platform notices, customer complaints, public records, or payment disputes.
Product, advertising, and consumer complianceClick to view request and verification stepsLawyer
Ask for
Request product specifications, safety or conformity records, substantiation for marketing claims, refund terms, warranties, recalls, and complaint history.
How to verify
Check the rules in every material sales market and confirm listings, labels, testimonials, promotions, and refund practices comply.
Warning sign
Products lack required records, marketing claims are unsupported, or refunds and complaints point to recurring quality issues.
Inventory title, condition, and landed costClick to view request and verification stepsAccountant
Ask for
Request a dated SKU-level inventory count, purchase invoices, ageing, damaged or returned stock, storage location, liens, and landed-cost calculation.
How to verify
Perform or observe a count, confirm the seller owns the stock, test saleability, and separate inventory value from goodwill and the stated purchase price.
Warning sign
Inventory is obsolete, held by an unverified third party, pledged, double counted, or valued at retail rather than cost.
Supplier, fulfilment, and marketplace continuityClick to view request and verification stepsBuyer
Ask for
Ask for supplier terms, recent invoices, lead times, quality history, fulfilment SLAs, account-health records, and written transfer or replacement steps.
How to verify
Speak with critical suppliers, confirm pricing and continuity after sale, and test whether store, ad, fulfilment, and payment accounts can continue.
Warning sign
One supplier or personal marketplace account is essential and has no confirmed continuity plan.
Missing evidence
- Customer / product / channel concentration
- Supplier agreements
- Marketplace/store account transfer
Prioritized seller questions
Use these to move from claims to evidence.
01Can you provide a month-by-month Shopify orders export and payment-processor payouts export for the same 12 months used for the USD 28,400 average revenue?
Why it matters
It tests whether recorded sales became cash and whether the displayed average hides weak months or seasonality.
Good answer
Read-only access plus exports whose gross sales, refunds, taxes, fees, and net payouts reconcile by month.
What would worry us
Screenshots only, mismatched date ranges, missing refund data, or payouts that cannot be tied to bank deposits.
Evidence to request
Shopify orders CSV, processor balance-transactions CSV, and business-bank statements for identical start and end dates.
02Please bridge the USD 28,400 average revenue to USD 6,900 profit and identify the USD 2,920 monthly cost not covered by the listed expenses.
Why it matters
The unitemized gap can change normalized profit, the multiple, and payback.
Good answer
A monthly P&L and general-ledger detail that maps every recurring cost, with one-off and owner-specific adjustments labeled.
What would worry us
The gap is unexplained, material costs sit outside the P&L, or the profit period differs from the revenue period.
Evidence to request
Monthly P&L, ledger detail, supplier invoices, ad invoices, shipping statements, software bills, refund report, and payment-fee export for 12 months.
03Which supplier represents 72% of unit volume, what agreement governs price and continuity, and will it continue on the same terms after a sale?
Why it matters
A concentrated supplier can change price, lead time, quality, or access after closing.
Good answer
A current signed agreement or direct supplier confirmation covering buyer onboarding, pricing, MOQs, lead times, defects, and termination.
What would worry us
The relationship is informal or personal, the supplier will not confirm continuity, or recent quality and stockout data is withheld.
Evidence to request
Supplier contract, 12 months of invoices and purchase orders, defect/return logs, stockout history, and written change-of-control confirmation.
04Which channel supplies 58% of acquisition, who owns its account, and what were spend, attributed sales, CAC, and contribution profit by month?
Why it matters
Revenue may fall if the channel economics, creative access, or account cannot transfer.
Good answer
Read-only platform access and monthly exports that reconcile spend to store orders under a documented attribution rule.
What would worry us
Blended ROAS only, seller-owned access that cannot transfer, unexplained tracking gaps, or sharply worsening CAC.
Evidence to request
Channel spend and campaign exports, attribution settings, creative library ownership, account status, and monthly Shopify sales by source.
05What produces the stated 12 to 16 hours of weekly owner work, and what happened in the four busiest weeks of the last year?
Why it matters
Averages can exclude launches, supplier issues, stockouts, refunds, and campaign resets.
Good answer
A four-week task log plus a one-year exception calendar, with tasks allocated to owner, employee, contractor, or agency.
What would worry us
No task record, key work described as effortless, or essential ad and supplier knowledge held only by the seller.
Evidence to request
Four-week task log, SOP index, contractor roster and costs, customer-support volume, campaign change log, and stockout calendar.
06For every promised asset, who legally owns it and what exact transfer or recreation step will be completed before closing?
Why it matters
An asset adds no buyer value if ownership, consent, credentials, data rights, or account transfer fails.
Good answer
A complete schedule covering domain, brand, Shopify, ad accounts, creatives, email list, inventory, supplier rights, and admin credentials.
What would worry us
Personal accounts, unlicensed creative, missing contractor assignments, restricted customer-data transfer, or promises deferred until after payment.
Evidence to request
Asset schedule, registrar proof, trademark/IP records, contractor assignments, platform transfer guidance, inventory count, and credential handover checklist.
07How was the 22% repeat-customer rate defined, and what do 30, 60, 90, and 180-day cohorts show?
Why it matters
A repeat rate without a denominator and time window can overstate demand durability.
Good answer
A cohort export with clear order/customer definitions and consistent improvement across mature cohorts.
What would worry us
A lifetime blended percentage only, duplicate customers, heavy discount dependence, or falling recent cohorts.
Evidence to request
Customer-level anonymized orders export or cohort report showing first order, repeat order, revenue, discount, refund, and cohort month.
08What tests support wholesale and expanded Google Shopping, and why has the seller not already captured that upside?
Why it matters
Unexecuted growth ideas should not be included in the purchase price without cost, skill, and evidence.
Good answer
Dated tests, unit economics, expected working capital, owner requirements, and a credible capacity reason for not scaling.
What would worry us
Only a generic opportunity, no tests, or a plan requiring substantial unpriced capital and specialist skill.
Evidence to request
Pilot results, campaign data, wholesale conversations, margin model, inventory requirement, cash budget, and implementation plan.
Documents and evidence to request
Shopify monthly orders export
Rebuild gross sales, discounts, taxes, refunds, order count, AOV, products, channels, and geographies for the listing period.
Payment-processor balance-transactions export
Reconcile store revenue to fees, refunds, chargebacks, payouts, and cash received for identical dates.
Monthly P&L plus general-ledger detail
Rebuild normalized profit and identify the USD 2,920 monthly cost gap and any owner or one-off adjustments.
Ad-platform read-only access and monthly exports
Test the 58% channel concentration, spend, attributed revenue, CAC, ROAS, contribution margin, and account status.
Supplier continuity pack
Confirm the 72% concentration, pricing, MOQs, lead times, quality history, termination terms, and post-sale continuity.
Inventory count and landed-cost schedule
Verify quantity, age, ownership, damage, sell-through, landed cost, and whether all saleable inventory is included in the price.
Asset, account, IP, and credential transfer schedule
Give every promised asset an owner, identifier, consent requirement, transfer method, handover date, and failure remedy.
Four-week task log, SOP index, and contractor cost list
Normalize the owner's 12 to 16 hours, expose exception work, and price replacement labour into profit.
Operational burden
The seller states 12 to 16 hours per week, but that workload excludes the cost of replacing the owner's ad management, supplier coordination, and customer escalations.
Normalize replacement labour
Obtain a four-week task log, assign each task to owner, contractor, or agency, and price the hours at the buyer's realistic replacement cost before accepting the stated profit.
Separate routine work from exceptions
Ask for ticket volume, refund handling, stockout frequency, campaign-change frequency, and the last three supplier problems. A weekly average can hide episodic workload.
Transferability
Several assets are promised, but Shopify, advertising, supplier, email, creative, domain, and inventory transfer steps must each be documented separately.
Build a closing asset schedule
List the legal owner, account identifier, transfer method, required consent, handover date, and failure remedy for every promised asset.
Make support measurable
Convert the 30-day support promise into named sessions, response times, included topics, credential handover, and a signed completion checklist.
Walk-away conditions
Walk away if the 12-month revenue and payout exports cannot be reconciled to bank cash within explained timing, refund, tax, and fee differences.
Unreconciled revenue makes profit, valuation, and payback unreliable.
Walk away if the lead supplier will not confirm buyer continuity or no practical replacement source exists at comparable landed cost and lead time.
A 72% supplier dependency can interrupt the business immediately after closing.
Walk away if critical storefront, advertising, domain, creative, customer-data, or supplier rights cannot transfer or be recreated before payment.
The buyer must receive the assets that generate and fulfil revenue.
Pause or reprice if normalized monthly profit falls below the USD 4,583 needed for a 36-month payback.
That threshold is the deterministic price divided by 36 months, before transaction costs or financing.
Negotiation issues
Supplier continuity as a closing condition
Require written supplier confirmation before closing, or use a holdback tied to successful onboarding and first deliveries.
Price based on verified normalized profit
Recalculate the price after the USD 2,920 cost gap, replacement labour, refunds, and channel costs are resolved.
Asset-transfer completion before release of funds
Tie payment or escrow release to the domain, store, creative, email, data, inventory, and account checklist.
Defined transition support
Convert 30 days of support into named sessions, response times, deliverables, and a signed completion standard.
Suggested next action
Send the eight-item evidence request, then run one live reconciliation session before discussing price.
Start with revenue, payouts, profit, ad spend, and supplier continuity. Rebuild normalized monthly profit, compare it with the USD 4,583 36-month payback threshold, and only then decide whether to proceed, reprice, or stop.
1. Send now
Send the first three prioritized seller questions and request their listed evidence before scheduling another call.
- • Can you provide a month-by-month Shopify orders export and payment-processor payouts export for the same 12 months used for the USD 28,400 average revenue?
- • Please bridge the USD 28,400 average revenue to USD 6,900 profit and identify the USD 2,920 monthly cost not covered by the listed expenses.
- • Which supplier represents 72% of unit volume, what agreement governs price and continuity, and will it continue on the same terms after a sale?
2. Reconcile
Match the requested records to the same period and definitions used for this report. Recalculate profit after omitted costs.
- • Shopify monthly orders export
- • Payment-processor balance-transactions export
- • Monthly P&L plus general-ledger detail
3. Set the decision gate
Do not change price or commitment until material inconsistencies are resolved, repriced, or written as closing conditions.
First walk-away gate: Walk away if the 12-month revenue and payout exports cannot be reconciled to bank cash within explained timing, refund, tax, and fee differences.
Appendix
Listing sources and extracted claims
Reference material is kept here so the report starts with the decision, risks, calculations, and buyer actions. Open a section only when you need to trace a figure or statement back to the listing.
Where the populated figures came from (4)
Working purchase price
Seller statedDisplayed as the listing asking price.
Show exact listing text
“Asking price USD $165,000”
Average monthly revenue
Seller statedDisplayed in the marketplace 12-month financial summary.
Show exact listing text
“Monthly Revenue USD $28,400 AVG”
Average monthly profit
Seller statedDisplayed in the marketplace 12-month financial summary.
Show exact listing text
“Monthly Profit USD $6,900 AVG”
Owner workload
CalculatedMidpoint of the seller's 12 to 16 hour weekly range.
Show exact listing text
“Requires approximately 12-16 hours per week”
Seller-stated expense lines (4)
Goods
Show exact listing text
“Goods USD $9,100 /month”
$9,100 / month
Paid advertising
Show exact listing text
“Paid advertising USD $6,200 /month”
$6,200 / month
Shipping and fulfilment
Show exact listing text
“Shipping and fulfilment USD $2,800 /month”
$2,800 / month
Software
Show exact listing text
“Software USD $480 /month”
$480 / month
Important claims extracted from the listing (5)
Owner workload: 12 to 16 hours per week across ads, supplier coordination, and customer escalations.
Replacement-cost inputBuyer action: Request a two-week task log, SOP coverage, named operators, hourly cost, and a live handover. Recalculate profit using a market replacement cost.
Why it matters and exact listing text
The stated workload changes normalized profit if the buyer must perform it or hire someone after closing.
“Requires approximately 12-16 hours per week managing ads, suppliers and customer escalations.”
Assets included: Brand, domain, Shopify store, creative library, email list, supplier introductions, and saleable inventory.
Closing schedule itemBuyer action: Put the asset, owner, transfer method, credentials, required consent, handover date, and remedy for failed transfer into the closing schedule.
Why it matters and exact listing text
The claim matters only if the seller owns the asset and it can legally and technically transfer without breaking operations.
“Sale includes the brand, domain, Shopify store, creatives, email list, supplier introductions and inventory.”
Supplier concentration: The lead supplier provides roughly 72% of units.
Replacement-cost inputBuyer action: Request a two-week task log, SOP coverage, named operators, hourly cost, and a live handover. Recalculate profit using a market replacement cost.
Why it matters and exact listing text
The stated workload changes normalized profit if the buyer must perform it or hire someone after closing.
“Our main supplier fulfils approximately 72% of unit volume.”
Transition support: Thirty days of email and video-call support is offered.
Closing schedule itemBuyer action: Put the asset, owner, transfer method, credentials, required consent, handover date, and remedy for failed transfer into the closing schedule.
Why it matters and exact listing text
The claim matters only if the seller owns the asset and it can legally and technically transfer without breaking operations.
“Seller will provide 30 days of email and video-call support after closing.”
Seller growth idea: Launch wholesale and expand Google Shopping.
Unpriced hypothesisBuyer action: Ask for any dated test results, budget, conversion impact, required skills, and a clear explanation of why the seller has not already captured it.
Why it matters and exact listing text
This is possible upside, not current value. It is excluded from the score and should not justify a higher bid without a completed test.
“Growth opportunities include wholesale and scaling Google Shopping.”
Screening disclaimer
This report is generated from information supplied by the user and deterministic calculations. Seller-claimed information may be inaccurate or incomplete. Deal Preflight does not provide legal, tax, financial, technical, investment, or professional due-diligence advice and does not determine whether a seller is fraudulent. Engage qualified professionals before committing capital or signing transaction documents.